The Real Estate Market Price May Fell

Beijing issued an unprecedented severely restricted etc, 15 measures stipulated since developers pricing and cost variances have responsibility, and strictly tosha chase is restricted, outsiders in Beijing new buys a room to need to offer for five consecutive years tax documents, the market is expected turnover will reduced by 50%. Previously, February 1, it is restricted and limited Shanghai issued borrow, promote housing property tax pilot program of 9 measures, has been clear about the “restricted”, “barred from buying” personnel acknowledgment and began implementation of time and multi-pronged approach.we curb speculative investment purchase. In addition, as the first city of kunming, tianjin, nanning, chengdu, Qingdao, changchun, tianjin, fuzhou, yinchuan, jinan, dalian, xiamen, ningbo, wuxi, suzhou and so on many cities also has promulgated a or upcoming law restricted policy.

January 27, office of the state council issued a notice to request, has taken housing is restricted, all the cities with measures of this circular conformity, should immediately to adjust and improve the related implementing rules. Have not taken housing restricted measures of municipality directly under the central government, cities under separate state planning, capital cities and overpriced, rising excessively city, in mid-february issued detailed rules for the implementation of the housing before is restricted. The state information center forecast department worked in economic media release, the report says, the living JianBu preliminary already sketched the 3rd batch execution “is restricted to make” city list, including the transaction is more active three-wire city. Recently, there were reports, live JianBu preliminary already worked out the 3rd batch execution “is restricted to make” city list, “restricted to make” gradually to be restricted without the large and medium-sized cities, appearing and transactions active three-wire urban expansion.

According to statistics, at present has put forward will be restricted city has reached more than 30. Market expectations, be restricted to will cover national, execute restricted policy will be approximately 72 city, be restricted in the national policy will spread densely multiple cities. More recently, as the hangzhou, suzhou, fuzhou, already issued regulation rules containing 25 cities issued a “new kingdom restricted policies, including eight” executive detailed rules of chengdu, changchun, yinchuan, nanning, Qingdao, xiamen, ningbo, wuxi, suzhou city, currently in most subordinate positive two three-wire city spread. The author Chen sincere analysis thinks, this shows that the government is trying to strengthen “new kingdom eight” implement unreasonable demand, inhibit part, especially investment speculative demand.

Should say, be restricted to the influence of the overall market policy is comprehensive, including those not issued restricted policy city, may cause the room price quantity qi fell.

First, it shows that the government resolutely control property prices determination, released government strictly implement the macro-control of the signal, will affect the gravity of the real estate market overall mentality. The author Chen sincere analysis thinks, be restricted policy and other policies, house property duty try signs, such as raising interest rates, the comprehensive function together will affect the overall market trend strength and prices are expected, real estate investment returns expected such whole market expectations, may force the market into late callback channel.

Secondly, some demand blocked at the door, the market is expected to variation, the investment speculators to withdraw from the market, meet the conditions of the buyers reentrancy wait-and-see even abandon to buy, purchasing power, the market demand will rapidly shrinking, will result in turnover shrinking. In fact, the first two months of the year, the real estate market has already entered the cooling channels. In January, clinch a deal around significantly, the partial city clinch a deal annulus declines exceed 50%. Enter February, especially during the Spring Festival, up zero clinch a deal, markets fell into “freezing point”. After the Spring Festival, everywhere markets continue to freeze. The whole February, almost domestic cities estate volume was down more than 50%, some fell 70 percent, part of the city fell by even reaches 80%, first-tier cities volume and minimum 5 years. If any data display, in Beijing, February, total turnover commodity residential 3535 set, annulus percentage, reached down nearly three years in the lowest. In Shanghai, in February, with a commodity residential volume 17.2 million square meters, only set May 2004 have online estate data, the lowest level since last month was worth only highest clinch a deal on December 140 million square meters of 12%; Skill commodity residential average clinch a deal the price also dropped sharply to 20946 yuan/square metre, than last December 25080 yuan/square metre peak prices declined 16.5%. Beijing, Shanghai market to appear the bulk of selling, it is widely believed that there are investment guest day selling 19 sets. The author Chen sincere analysis thinks, volume fell rapidly results, will probably lead to falling house prices.

Third, purchasing power, clinch a deal decline, affirmation will affect buildings sales, developers sales pressure will increase, which may affect the developers of money collecting, increasing financial pressure.

Fourth, due to restricted is set for the unit, be restricted policies made that accords with a condition and purchasing power buyers choose to buy large family, may increase in some family product sales of difficulty.

Fifth, restricted policy, inevitable meeting affects real estate investment, in part ChaoFang funds may be made part of ChaoFang funds to at present does not sure whether I will be restricted or other market is restricted to make “no” more next level market, market worry might prompt prices foam downward shift, pushing up these markets heat, push big bubble degree, push up three or four lines urban housing prices. Some suggest that the national all cities should perform is restricted to comprehensive inhibit policy speculative funds.

However, no matter new “kingdom eight” or thereafter the general office of the state council issued the notice, all proposed should publish restricted policy cities including other overpriced, rising excessively city, did not specifically what cities are not restricted policies, and didn’t come three, four city is restricted.

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